Wednesday, March 21

Primary Motivation

Now New York is moving on up...

From the AP

No, not the budget, which is due April 1. Instead, the New York State Senate and Assembly both passed a bill moving New York's presidential primary date up to Feb. 5, 2008. The idea is to make New York "relevant" in the Presidential sweepstakes.

But with as many as 20 states considering or already having moved their primaries to Feb. 5, it seems unlikely any will gain added relevance. Why? Because that day will now be something akin to a national primary, with perhaps as much as half the country (population-wise) voting.

No candidate can really campaign in all those states in the short window between the South Carolina primary (Democrats on the prior Tuesday, Republicans on the prior Saturday) and the new "Super Duper" Tuesday.

So what will happen? Many now believe Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (Nevada holds a Democrat-only caucus too, so maybe Nevada) will be more important than ever. Any candidate that can't win at least one of these states may be too hobbled by his or her lack of perceived momentum to win many states on Feb. 5.

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