As the Iowa City Council race winds down, the question is how will the 21 ordinance vote impact the outcome of the at-large race. If history is any indication, it may not have the impact that some think.
In 2005, Amy Correia who was a pro-public power supporter was elected. I was also a public power supporter, and was not. In fairness, Amy also received the second highest amount of votes in the primary, while I came in fourth. In the general election, Amy received the most votes, and I stayed in 4th place.
Fast forward to this race, Matt Hayek received the most votes in the primary (by far) and Mike Wright and Terry Smith were about 200 votes apart for second and third. Dee Vanderhoef, the incumbent came in 4th place.
Given that Brandon Ross was eliminated and had 660 votes, it is likely that his primary votes will most likely go to Wright, as the only true progressive left in the race. Vanderhoef, Smith, and Hayek will likely fight three ways for two votes, which leaves one of them the odd person out--and at this point, it looks like it may be Vanderhoef.
The big unknown is how many students who are voting against the 21 ordinance are also voting for council candidates. The footage I saw from KCRG last week indicated that it is equally likely that a student voted only for the 21 as a student who voted for the 21 and at least one candidate. If half of the students who voted early voted for only the 21 issue at a satellite, that would mean that 1500 or so had also voted for a candidate. If the students only voted for candidates who did not support the 21, that would mean that Smith and Hayek would have at least a 1500 vote lead before polling on Tuesday.
What nobody is talking about is how many "yes" to 21-only voters will turn out to vote before or on Tuesday. If the number of "yes" voters mirrors the "no" voters in terms of selecting candidates based on their support of the 21 ordinance, it is anybody's guess how the race will turnout because more "yes" voters are likely to vote for candidates and the referendum items.
Not that you asked, but my crystal ball predicts with high voter turnout (30% or more):
1) Matt Hayek--by a metric mile
2) Mike Wright--by a tip of an eyelash
3) Terry Smith
4) Dee Vanderhoef
In any case, the crystal ball, while cloudy today, will be, well "crystal" clear somewhere around 8:30 Tuesday night. Good luck to all the candidates and your campaign teams--the hard slog is now.
The last forum?
John Deeth blogged Gary Sander's "No Baloney" City Council Forum
My as-it-happened take on the forum is here:http://jdeeth.blogspot.com/2007/10/no-baloney-4-candidates.html